As any frequent flier knows, airlines often change their routes. Whilst many major routes between key cities remain, flights to smaller cities or some hub airports may change frequently This article takes a look at a few of the main reasons why airline routes get changed and canceled.
No longer economical
Airlines will, of course, put effort into deciding on new routes and destinations. Route planning is a vital part of any airline operation and airlines look carefully at passenger demand forecasts, other competitor activity, aircraft availability, costs, and other factors.
Sometimes, though, this doesn’t work out in reality as planned. This could be due, for example, to fewer passengers wanting to fly the route than expected, problems with pricing, or connecting traffic not working as planned.
There can also, in some cases, be subsidies offered for certain routes that can change or be withdrawn over time. Globaltimes quotes this as a possible factor in British Airways canceling its route from London to Chengdu in 2016, although this is not confirmed.
Whatever the reason, if the economics are not working after some time, the airline will likely cancel the route. A good example of this is American Airlines with its new route from Chicago to Beijing in 2010. This was stopped in 2018 with reported revenue coming in around $80 million under target.
Changes in competition
Airlines will sometimes start routes following the plans of other airlines. This can be to maintain their brand in the market and/or to limit other airlines’ ability to ‘steal’ their passengers. With multiple carriers operating the same route, some carriers may well have to withdraw.
This happened when Icelandair and WOW Air both started a route between Dallas and Reykjavik. United soon followed and, as the dominant airline in the area, this soon led to both Icelandair and WOW Air dropping the route.
Cargo could be the reason, not just passengers
Airlines operate flight routes and make money based on cargo loads as well as passengers. Although passenger demand and cabin occupancy are more visible to us, the freight carried is important to the airline as well. A route may fail to perform as expected in this area, or there could be changes in the original cargo supply that lead to the route being canceled.
Aircraft availability
Airlines have a limited fleet, with orders and acquisitions of new aircraft being a much longer process than changing routes. If an airline sees a new route they want to begin operating, this will often come at the expense of canceling others, even if they are successful. You see this several times a year when major airlines announce changes for their next season’s flight schedules.
Airline financial problems
Route cancellations could also be due to airline economics, rather than specific route performance. Airlines that are struggling internally or financially often cancel routes to lower costs or restructure.
This was demonstrated recently when South African Airways announced a huge cut of eight international routes and all but one domestic route, amidst ongoing financial struggles.
Safety or government warnings
And finally, there are times when route cancellations are outside the control of the airline. This could be due to closure of airspace (at the destination or en route), or due to safety deteriorations in particular areas. This happened with Qatar Airways for example in 2017, when several Arab countries banned the airline from entering their airspace.
And we see this happening now in the Middle East, with many countries (including the UK and the US) placing restrictions on flying in Iraq and Iran. And again with the Coronavirus in China, many airlines are dropping routes at short notice. This may end up being a short term situation, or it could be some time before routes are re-established.