United Airlines is anticipating a final July load factor to be about 45% as the coronavirus pandemic continues to keep travel demand low. While load factors have remained low, since May, United has been upgauging flights and significantly increasing its schedules. While the airline has not guaranteed social distancing onboard, it states that its emptier flights have allowed for more space onboard.
A changing load factor
Back in May, at what was a preview to summer travel, United saw a monthly load factor of 38%. By June, United was able to grow that load factor by almost 20 points to 57.8%. During these two months, United did not actively guarantee empty middle seats onboard aircraft or any form of social distancing onboard flights. Instead, it was more of a “when possible” situation. Now, with flights still able to be booked to capacity, United is anticipating a 45% load factor this month.
However, the carrier noted that, during May and June, it upgauged over 4,000 flights to give more customers space onboard its aircraft. However, that did not work as planned on all flights with public backlash over some heavily booked flights.
The airline released these load factor numbers as part of its second quarter results– which saw the airline post a net loss of $1.6 billion.
Doubling its schedule
United has doubled the size of its schedule from June to July. According to the carrier, this means that the airline will provide “more flights, more seats, and more space onboard for our customers.” Moving forward, the airline also expects an expansion of its schedule in August.
The expanded schedule is what is leading United to expect a lower load factor. Although, it will continue to notify passengers and allow them to change their travel plans if their flight is departing over 70% filled. The airline currently anticipates less than 15% of flights will depart with over 70% of seats filled this month.
In a filing viewed by Simple Flying, the carrier stated that it believes it did the “best job of matching actual capacity to demand among its largest network peers.” CEO Scott Kirby also celebrated the carrier’s moves to match its schedule to reduced demand.
What comes next for United?
Week-to-week passenger demand growth has started to slow with this past weekend marking the first time since April when passengers did not grow from the previous weekend. This has led airlines to view their schedules cautiously. United, however, appears ready to fly more.
However, the carrier has not yet reached a break-even load factor– which traditionally ranges from 70%+ depending on the airline. There is still some way to go for the airline, but much of that will depend on how air travel demand looks in the coming weeks. With a surge in coronavirus cases across tourist hotspots in the United States, the airline could be forced to cut some of its flights.
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