For many decades, science fiction films and books have described and shown us a variety of humanoid robots that range from ones that look clearly mechanical and follow simple orders and have limited functionality to ones that are indistinguishable from human beings in appearance but are far stronger, faster and more capable in many ways.
And over those decades, audiences have been encouraged to imagine such robots as figments of the imagination, something for the future – a future after our own lifetimes.
Now, however, instead of waiting there for us to die and spare us from having to deal with it, that future is hurtling towards us with unsettling speed.
In other words, the development and real-world application of humanoid robots are far more advanced than perhaps we are prepared for. And these are not your gimmicky, stationary shop assistants that you might greet you as you as you enter a department store in Tokyo, but machines that are capable of complex and difficult tasks such as welding, lifting and moving large, heavy items, and inspection of products and facilities in the industrial sector.
Perhaps luckily for us, manufacturers of these robots are listening to their target markets and making their machines look like machines rather than humans. But the way they move and perform tasks is so uncannily human-like that it makes you wonder if they actually have a section of an actual human or animal brain integrated into them.
That would make it a cyborg, of course, a subject we will probably deal with again soon. But in this article, we thought we would round up the latest developments in the world of humanoid robotics and see how far we are from our collective doom.
More than a car company
A couple of years ago, Elon Musk – he of Tesla cars, Starlink satellite internet, and the X social media network – made the ambitious prediction that Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, will become the company’s “biggest product ever”. His pronouncement has sparked widespread intrigue and some scepticism.
Tesla is a hugely successful electric car company. In 2023, the company sold more than 1.8 million units, generating revenue of almost $100 billion.
Tesla’s Optimus robot prototype has made headlines worldwide, but we can’t see the final product selling in the same quantities as the company’s cars because the market is not ready for such an advanced, unusual product and the technology has not yet reached the threshold at which it becomes the same or better than the nearest alternative.
For example, welding has been done by industrial robots in automotive factories for decades. Why would factory managers replace these robots – which have successfully served their masters for decades – with humanoids?
But that’s the current situation. If we look ahead about five years, we can see that car companies are redesiging their production lines to make them more mobile. This may mean that they can find a place for a robot that can walk around and work at different workstations.
Meaning, why have an assembly line that moves vehicles along for different robots to work on them, or small wheeled mobile robots – autonomous mobile robots – to take car bodies from one work station to another? Why not just bring a few humanoid robots and have them do all the mobility and just perch the car body in one place and keep it there?
That is, the humanoid robots can walk around the car or anything else and pretty much do everything else necessary. All they need is the correct, perhaps interchangeable, end effectors – hands, arms and legs or even head – and the necessary software, either onboard or available to them through the cloud.
It’s not impossible. Just a lot to do. No predictions are safe right now.
But before exploring this new paradigm further, it’s essential to understand the distinctions between humanoid robots, androids, and cyborgs, as well as the technological and societal hurdles that must be overcome for humanoid robots to achieve commercial prominence.
Defining who’s who
Humanoid robot: A machine designed to mimic human physical structure and movement, such as walking upright on two legs. Humanoids may or may not have human-like faces – and most of the prominent companies have decided not to – but they do replicate human motor functions.
Android: A subclass of humanoid robots, designed not only to resemble humans physically but also to behave in ways indistinguishable from humans. Android designers aim for seamless integration into human environments by mimicking human-like emotions, behaviours, and aesthetics. Perhaps think of Data in Star Trek.
Cyborg: Unlike robots, cyborgs are a fusion of biological and mechanical systems, combining organic human or animal components with robotic enhancements. This is not exactly what is meant by the term “cyber-physical system” – that’s an environment where humans remain fully human but work with robots seamlessly in one place, a factory for example.
While humanoids are known to be in development across various sectors, androids remain within the realms of academic institutions, and commercially aspirational due to the complex demands of creating indistinguishable human-like behaviours and appearance – and due to the lack of demand for such machines. And cyborgs are solely the preserve of science fiction, as far as we know.
Staggering market growth predicted
The global humanoid robot market is set for significant growth in the Asia-Pacific market at least, according to Fortune Business Insights. Valued at approximately $2.43 billion in 2023, it is projected to reach $66 billion by 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate of 45.5 per cent during the forecast period.
How accurate this prediction will turn out to be is anyone’s guess, but we don’t think it’s beyond the bounds of possibility, certainly.
Technological challenges and developments
Despite advancements, several technological hurdles impede the widespread adoption of humanoid robots:
Artificial intelligence and cognition: Achieving human-like understanding and interaction remains more challenging than one would have imagined. Passing the Turing Test, which evaluates a machine’s ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour indistinguishable from a human, is a significant milestone yet to be fully reached.
Physical realism: The “Uncanny Valley” phenomenon describes the discomfort humans feel when encountering robots that appear almost – but not quite – human. Overcoming this requires sophisticated design and materials to create more natural appearances and movements. One may meet a human being who has quirks and idiosyncrasies that may be unsettling, but that’s different – that’s just a weird person… human, just weird.
Battery life and power efficiency: Developing compact, long-lasting power sources is essential for the practical deployment of humanoid robots in various environments, and the pursuit of technologies to achieve this continues apace. Recent stories about diamond batteries lasting 28,000 years sound fantastic, and we have no idea what to say about them other than they sound impossibly expensive.
Legal and regulatory considerations
The integration of humanoid robots into society necessitates comprehensive legal frameworks addressing:
Safety standards: Ensuring robots operate without causing harm to humans.
Liability issues: Determining accountability in cases of malfunction or misuse.
Ethical guidelines: Establishing norms for acceptable robot behaviour and interaction with humans.
Companies leading the development of humanoid robots
Tesla: The Optimus robot is designed for general-purpose tasks, with aspirations for mass production to reduce costs and increase accessibility.
Figure AI: Deploys humanoid robots in industrial settings, such as automotive manufacturing, to automate repetitive tasks.
Boston Dynamics: Known for robots with advanced motor skills, their humanoid models excel in agility and balance, suitable for dynamic environments.
Those are the most well-known humanoid robot developers, but there are many other companies building humanoids, including: Unitree Robotics, Agility Robtics, 1X, Apptronik, Engineered Arts, PAL Robotics, UBTech, and many others.
Interestingly, a humanoid robot called Aida, built by Hanson Robotics, has produced a painting which recently sold for more than a million dollars at auction at Sotheby’s. But that opens up a whole new area that deserves its own article.
Market applications
Industrial: Automating tasks in manufacturing, logistics, and hazardous environments.
Domestic: Assisting with household chores, elderly care, and companionship.
Potential dangers of humanoid robots in society
The proliferation of humanoid robots introduces many potential risks:
Malicious programming: Robots could be programmed or hacked to perform harmful actions. Establishing regulatory bodies to oversee robot ethics and security is crucial. Skynet + Terminator = Say no more.
Economic impact: Automation may lead to job displacement, necessitating workforce retraining and social support systems.
Privacy concerns: Robots equipped with sensors and cameras could inadvertently infringe on personal privacy.
Ethical considerations and human rights
As robots become more advanced, ethical questions arise:
Rights for robots: Debates continue on whether highly intelligent robots should possess certain rights or protections. A few years ago, a legal committee of the European Union actually suggested giving humanoid robots human rights.
Transparency: Determining whether robots should be clearly identified as non-human to prevent deception, and, perhaps more importantly, some argue that their programming and algorithms should be made available for scrutiny by the relevant legal authorities.
Social integration: Assessing the implications of robots that are indistinguishable from humans blending into society without disclosure. What if robots secrete themselves into positions of influence and power and are under the control of malevolent forces that the general public does not know and cannot defend against?
Another fine mess you’re getting us into
The journey toward integrating humanoid robots into society is complex, involving technological innovation, market dynamics, and ethical deliberations, and will take time. But we believe it is inevitable. It’s just a matter of time.
Achieving a market size comparable to the automotive industry will require overcoming significant challenges. But with companies like Tesla, Figure AI, and Boston Dynamics leading the way, and a multitude of others following up, we can’t see any possibility of stopping the march of humanoid robots.
What we hope is that they are at least as well regulated as autonomous cars because they are potentially equally dangerous, possibly more so.
As time goes by and we move forward, it is imperative to establish robust frameworks ensuring that the rise of humanoid robots benefits society while mitigating potential risks.
