With the UK’s rules on quarantine constantly changing, British travelers are becoming ever more vigilant to the fluctuating environment. This week, as Portugal’s cases continue to rise, fears that it will be removed from the safe list on Thursday has seen thousands of tourists rushing to get home. Flights are filling up, and prices are spiking, even before the change of requirements has been announced.
Watching the numbers
Just as the routine of watching the Downing Street briefing each afternoon became routine for British people during the peak of the pandemic, now it seems there’s a new norm, and it happens on a Thursday. Each week, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and Department for Transport takes another look at the COVID-19 figures around the world and decides which countries stay on the travel corridors approved list and which do not.
To decide, the UK government uses somewhat arbitrary figures relating to the number of cases over the past seven days per 100,000 people. The threshold is 20, with those countries above that number being removed from the ‘safe travel’ list. While many will argue that more testing means more cases, it’s a yardstick that is being wielded weekly to decide the fate of holidaymakers abroad.
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In recent weeks, we’ve seen a number of places removed from the safe travel list at short notice. Spain was removed with only four hours warning, but those in France were given just over 24 hours’ notice that they could be required to stay home for two weeks. This saw a rush to book travel, with ferries and the Eurostar booked to capacity and flights selling for ten times their usual fares.
With these experiences under their belt, British holidaymakers have become adept at checking the case numbers for their destinations, and there’s no source as reliable as Mr. Paul Charles, CEO of travel consultancy The PC Agency.
Mon update: A tough call for @transportgovuk in this Thursday’s weekly review as #Portugal now moves firmly into the red zone for quarantine while #Gibraltar still tops the list. Timing may help as most #British tourists will be heading home this week. #coronavirus @ThePCAgency pic.twitter.com/07UAotbheD
— Paul Charles (@PPaulCharles) August 31, 2020
Charles has been tweeting numbers of COVID cases on a daily basis. This week, he has highlighted the rise in cases for poor old Portugal, a destination that was only removed from quarantine requirements a fortnight ago. Charles notes that Portugal has registered 21.1 cases per 100,000 people over the last seven days. This puts it squarely in the red zone and at risk of being removed from the safe travel list this Thursday.
Flight prices spike
Following the popular holiday destination being added to the safe travels list, thousands had booked flights for a last-minute summer break, with airlines adding huge amounts of capacity to cope with the demand.
As Mr. Charles’ predictions have regularly been on the money, travelers in Portugal have already started to make plans to return home. One holidaymaker said that ‘thousands’ of tourists were following his tweets and that flights were already beginning to book up.
@PPaulCharles many thanks for your tweets and support, many thousands of UK tourists that are in Portugal are following your advice including myself, changing flights already to be back before Saturday 4am, all flights from Faro to London are fully booked now until Saturday
— Sergio Dionisio (@Sergiodionisio1) August 31, 2020
With demand surging to get home before the quarantine comes into force, flight prices have begun to spike. From Faro, the gateway to the resorts of the Algarve, the cheapest direct flight on Friday back to London was over £350 per person.
Leaving a day earlier would see a few more options available, although prices are still phenomenally high. The cheapest flight on Thursday was with Jet2, for just under £250 per person. However, a British Airways flight on the same day came in at more than £500 per passenger!
For comparison, the same trip on Monday next week, after the quarantine restrictions are likely to come into place, could be snagged for as little as £127.
Traveling up the coast to the city of Lisbon is not much better. The only direct flight with availability on Friday was pricing this morning at just under £300. This route would usually be less than £200 per person, even in the high season.
As British travelers continue to be stung by the last minute changes of rules, and with schools and workplaces resuming normal operations, the impact on the travel industry is going to be severe. As much as the government is keen to get the economy restarted, tourism is likely to remain subdued until such time as people can travel without worry that they’ll need two weeks at home when they return to the UK.
Are you going to be affected if Portugal is removed from the safe travels list? Are you trying to get a flight home? Let us know in the comments.