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Airspace closures from the Iran conflict are expected to have long-term knock-on effects on our aviation sector, Airservices has warned.
In its Australian Aviation Network Overview report for February 2026, the air traffic management provider noted that while international flights reached their highest growth rate in the past 12 months, long-haul demand is “expected to soften” due to the Middle East crisis.
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“In February, the strongest growth rate in international flights was seen in Qatar, Japan, China and Malaysia,” the report read.
“The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is seeing significant impacts on the aviation sector with airspace closures and network disruptions. This is particularly significant for our network, as around six per cent of Australia’s international flights rely on connectivity through the region.
“The long-term economic and geopolitical impacts of the conflict are likely to be significant and the extent of these effects will take some time to emerge.”
Middle Eastern carriers such as Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways account for around 10 per cent of Australia’s external seat capacity, and are operating on limited schedules due to the threat of Iranian strikes.
February saw the Australian aviation network overall record a 3.4 per cent increase year-on-year in passenger flights, with international demand helped by Lunar New Year travel, the Winter Olympics, and a strong Australian dollar.
According to Airservices, domestic “continues to be driven by the major airline groups, while international growth is being led by markets benefiting most from the stronger Australian dollar, including Japan, China and South-East Asia”.
“Over the past three years, domestic passenger numbers have grown faster than flight volumes, reflecting fleet and resource constraints that shaped the post-pandemic operating environment,” the report read.
“Load factors peaked around August last year and have started to ease. 10 of the top 15 busiest routes, all carrying over 900,000 passengers annually, recorded average load factors above 85 per cent in 2025, with some reaching 94 per cent during holiday peaks.”
Airservices also facilitated 69,482 passenger flights in February, up 81 flights per day from the same time year-on-year, while ground delay programs accounted for two per cent of network delays.
“Severe weather, including tropical lows, thunderstorms and lightning affected multiple airports late in the month, reinforcing the importance of industry collaboration on climate resilience and opportunity for investing in advanced weather forecasting and warning capabilities,” said Airservices.
Qantas has said it is looking to deploy more capacity into Europe, with bookings on routes including Perth–London, Perth–Paris and services via Singapore more than 90 per cent full in March, up 15 per cent on normal load factors for this time of year.
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