The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is tipping airline passenger numbers will exceed 2019 levels in 2024. The Geneva-based airline trade group expects airlines to carry four billion passengers in 2024, 103% of 2019’s passenger numbers. IATA’s prediction is despite ongoing airline industry disruptions.
Steady passenger traffic improvements predicted
Drawing on data from IATA’s 290 member airlines who carry 83% of global air traffic, overall traveler numbers in 2021 were 47% of 2019 levels. But IATA expects this number to improve to 83% this year, 94% in 2023, and 103% in 2024.
“The trajectory for the recovery in passenger numbers from COVID-19 was not changed by the omicron variant. People want to travel,” says IATA’s CEO, Willie Walsh. “When travel restrictions are lifted, they return to the skies. There is still a long way to go to reach a normal state of affairs, but the forecast for the evolution in passenger numbers gives good reason to be optimistic.”
But not all markets are created equal. IATA reports big improvements in the major North Atlantic and intra-European markets, strengthening the baseline for recovery, but says Asia-Pacific remains the global laggard. In North America, passenger numbers will reach 94% of 2019 levels this year, with full recovery expected in 2023 (102%) – ahead of other regions. This is despite the Canadian airline market continuing to struggle.
IATA expects global passenger traffic to hit 103% of 2019 levels in 2024. Photo: Miami Dade Aviation Department
Passenger traffic differences across the globe
IATA expects the intra-Europe market to benefit from passenger preferences for short-haul travel. This will be boosted by increasingly harmonized and restriction-free movement within the EU. Total passenger numbers to/from/within Europe are expected to reach 86% of 2019 values this year, before making a full recovery in 2024 (105%).
Passenger numbers to/from/within the Middle East are expected to reach 81% of 2019 levels this year, 98% in 2024, and 105% in 2025. IATA predicts Africa will recover more gradually than other regions. They say the continent will reach 76% of 2019 levels this year, surpassing pre-crisis levels only in 2025.
Latin America is a global bright spot. IATA forecasts a strong 2022. The trade group expects 2019 passenger numbers to be surpassed in 2023 for Central America (102%), followed by South America in 2024 (103%), and the Caribbean in 2025 (101%).
Slow international traffic recovery across Asia-Pacific is hampering a wider recovery in that region. Passenger traffic to/from/within Asia-Pacific will only reach 68% of 2019 levels this year, the weakest outcome of the main regions. 2019 levels should be recovered in 2025 (109%).
IATA is encouraged by the steady return of passengers to airports. Photo: Don Wilson/Seattle-Tacoma Airport
Impact of Russia – Ukraine conflict remains uncertain
However, IATA’s recovery forecast isn’t factoring in the impact of the Russia – Ukraine conflict. The trade group says it is too early to determine near-term consequences. IATA notes air transport is resilient against shocks and says this conflict is unlikely to impact the long-term growth of air transport. But IATA also adds some impact is inevitable, particularly on that region’s airlines.
“Sensitivity factors will include the geographic extent, severity, and time period for sanctions and/or airspace closures. These impacts would be felt most severely in Russia, Ukraine, and neighboring areas. Pre-COVID-19, Russia was the 11th largest market for air transport services in terms of passenger numbers, including its large domestic market. Ukraine ranked 48,” IATA advises.
“The impact on airline costs resulting from fluctuations in energy prices or rerouting to avoid Russian airspace could have broader implications. Consumer confidence and economic activity are likely to be impacted even outside of Eastern Europe.”
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