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Prediction: By the end of this year, logistics tech companies won’t be leading with “AI” in their marketing slogans. They won’t be hyping blockchain or data lakes, either. The tech message will shift away from selling buzzwords to solving real problems.
The success formula is simple: Solution output = size of problem x priority of problem.
It’s time for to let the single version of the truth drive your focus. Supply chain is about results, not hype, and in 2026, outcomes and grounded execution will matter most.
We’re already seeing evidence of this shift. While artificial intelligence adoption across industries is accelerating, buyers are increasingly demanding that AI provide tangible value. That’s no surprise, given that recent reports find that 95% of generative AI pilots at companies are failing.
This trend toward higher customer expectations will be clearly evident in logistics in the coming year, when major economic and geopolitical pressures are expected to converge. Under these conditions, logistics-tech buyers are going to demand solutions that truly deliver.
Since the 2020–2022 boom cycle collapsed, the freight economy has been operating in a fragile equilibrium. Many carriers that survived the downturn did so through cost-cutting, debt restructuring and razor-thin margins.
The cracks are turning into crevasses. U.S. carrier bankruptcies in the first half of 2025 were already at their highest level since 2019, a warning sign that more consolidation is inevitable. As bankruptcies accelerate, capacity will contract — and when that happens, freight rates will spike sharply to re-balance the market. In short, supply will shrink before demand rebounds, forcing shippers and third-party logistics providers to rethink their procurement and network strategies.
Regulatory and geopolitical dynamics add another layer of uncertainty. While there are early signs of easing tensions, with potential de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and stabilization across parts of the Middle East, trade patterns remain volatile. Disruptions in energy prices, maritime security and regional infrastructure still ripple across global supply chains.
When peace and trade normalization eventually take hold, likely by late 2026, global shipping and manufacturing could rebound rapidly. That resurgence will test logistics capacity all over again; the same systems that were underutilized in 2024–2025 could suddenly be overrun by late 2026.
For freight leaders already bracing for 2026, a new stressor is setting in: the hype hangover. The market is weary of vaporware. The days when startups could raise capital on “AI-powered supply chains” or “blockchain-enabled visibility” are over.
Agentic AI, while powerful, faces the same limitation that robotic process automation did a decade ago: It’s only as effective as the data and workflows that it’s built on. Many logistics tech companies are merely chasing revenue growth, their product roadmap dictated by market dollars rather than what their customers need long term.
Now, buyers are savvier, budgets are tighter, and patience for hype has worn thin.
As financial pressure, capacity crunch and technology fatigue converge, logistics tech companies will quickly realize that they must deliver concrete outcomes, rather than chase trends. Tech providers with deep domain data and specific use cases will fare better than those flaunting the next big algorithm with nothing to back it up.
We already know what “good AI” looks like: It’s practical, measurable and tied directly to business results. In logistics, it might look like iterative supply chain modeling that identifies waste continuously, eliminating the need to wait three to five years for a traditional network redesign. It might automate non-value work, such as track-and-trace calls and manual capacity matching, freeing teams to focus on exceptions and strategy. Or it could provide camera-vision and trailer intelligence that prevents theft, improves safety and protects communities.
If a vendor shows up this year saying “We are the AI company for logistics,” that’s probably a red flag. Conversely, if one says, “We embed AI to eliminate the 10% of cost that was invisible to you,” then you might be in the right conversation.
In short, by the end of 2026, the era of “AI-first” marketing in logistics will be fading. It will be replaced by a “problem-first, solution-second” approach, with AI, digital twins, data lakes and blockchain all relegated to enablers rather than differentiators. If you’re in the logistics-tech sector, I suggest you build for that. If you’re a shipper or carrier, I suggest you demand it.
Glenn Koepke is vice president, industry and solutions strategy at Vector.
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