Seismologists are warning that Iceland’s Iceland’s Grimsvotn volcano could soon experience a massive eruption in the near future. Unfortunately, given Iceland’s location between North America and continental Europe, an eruption would have a significant impact on transatlantic traffic, disrupting an already fragile system.
A warning from Icelandic seismologists
The warning of the rising threat comes from the Icelandic Met Office (IMO), who says that the seismic activity at the Grímsvötn volcano has been increasing during the past month. In fact, it is showing multiple indications that a massive eruption could soon take place. The volcano’s last major incident was in 2011 when a massive and unusually powerful eruption ejected ash 20km into the air.
The warning signs
According to Yahoo News, the Aviation Colour Code for the volcano was raised to yellow from green on October 1st. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), a code yellow is the second-lowest warning level and is defined as a “Volcano is exhibiting signs of elevated unrest above known background activity.”
Scientists say that concern stems from ground deformation that is exceeding the levels seen before the volcano’s 2011 eruption, which itself caused Icelandic airspace to close and 900 flights to be canceled.
eTurbo News notes that the volcano has recently been observed “inflating” as new magma enters the chambers beneath it once again. The resulting increased thermal activity has melted more ice. Furthermore, localized earthquake activity has increased.
How aviation would be affected
It’s been just over ten years since the volcanic eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland. This incident caused European airspace to come to a standstill with nearly all flights in Europe and across the Atlantic Ocean suspended for almost a week. This was due to the vast amounts of ash from the eruption of the volcano thrown high into the air – a severe hazard for aircraft engines.
Because volcanic ash is made up of tiny particles of rock, it has an intensely abrasive effect on aircraft. This means it can destroy the outer surface of the aircraft’s fuselage, which can be especially bad news for the wings.
Another vulnerable part of the aircraft is the windshield, which can quickly become obscured or even shattered by airborne ash.
However, the most vulnerable part of an aircraft flying through a cloud of volcanic ash is its engines. When hot volcanic ash enters a jet engine, it heats up, resulting in ash melting and sticking together as clumps of molten material. This can quickly cool, solidify and destroy an engine, rendering it completely inoperational, and leaving the aircraft without power.
It goes without saying that the aviation industry is already in a fragile state due to the global health crisis. While there may not be as many passengers traveling these days, the aircraft still flying are carrying precious cargo with significant economic importance. Many airlines – and global economies – have already been hard hit by this year’s events. A volcanic eruption leading to a total shutdown of transatlantic aviation would have adversely impact economies on both sides of the Atlantic – even if it lasts for only a week.
We’ll just have to wait and keep an eye on Grimsvotn. It’s undoubtedly the last thing we need to happen in 2020.
